There is no doubt that the world lives through heated geopolitical times again. Shifts in international balances of power were already ongoing, but the first months of the Trump presidency have made it abundantly clear that the ‘American global order’ as we knew it is null and void and that the global and European security architecture is fraying at the seams. Multilateralism may well make place for ‘the deal’, supported by open and veiled threats to America’s adversaries and allies alike. All things point to further informalisation and roughening of international politics, and cyberspace will not be different. But will this rising disorder – in the end – be followed by a re-ordering? And, if so, what will a new cyber order look like? Will diplomacy and the rule of law have a role to play, or will state behaviour shape the normative landscape of cyberspace?

The cyber domain is no island and takes direction from the geopolitical and geoeconomic changes in the international system. Already Russia is ramping up its hybrid and cyber operations in Europe and this is likely to continue and increase. Cyber activities below the threshold of armed conflict – the grey zone – will likely take centre stage as the main theatre of cyber conflict, raising questions about the capabilities and mandates of state cyber agencies. Europe will have to develop its geopolitical voice and posture to ensure that the rhetoric of digital sovereignty, strategic autonomy and geoeconomic investments, are translated into policies, budgets and politics. That holds true for its relations with the US and China, but also with rising middle powers like India and Brazil, and other countries in the majority world. How will states navigate the limits and opportunities of global disorder in cyberspace and which countries will step forward in crafting a new order?

Any re-ordering will also have to take into account relations with the corporate rulers of the digital domain. Large digital platforms and corporations that are part of international digital supply chains – like semiconductors – are increasingly in a position of power. States may want to weaponize ‘their’ corporations for geopolitical purposes, but these companies also wade into international conflict of their own accord, as we have seen in Ukraine. Some American Big Tech corporations have aligned with Trump’s America First agenda to fight regulation outside of the US, like the EU regulations on AI and content regulation. What role will transnational digital companies – from all corners of the world – take in both the disorder and the re-ordering of the international political system?    

‍

‍

‍

The conference continues the work of the annual series organised by The Hague Program for Cyber Norms in its four previous editions. These conferences have become a key multidisciplinary venue for peer-reviewed research in the study of cyber security and international stability. See our website for the program and impressions of the all previous editions of the conference in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023.

‍Stay updated on our conference. Make sure you are signed up to our mailing list or follow us on Twitter.