2025 Conference on International Cyber Security | 4-5 November 2025
Register now

Arthur Laudrain

Infrastructure as Alignment: How AI Platform Lock-In Shapes Middle-Ground Cyber Statecraft in Europe and Beyond

Great Power competition over artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping digital interdependencies, yet we lack a systematic account of how middle-ground and European states align with rival AI ecosystems. This paper extends a typology of middle-ground cyber statecraft to AI governance, testing whether four informal alignment configurations (Strategic Alignment, Sovereignty Assertion, Selective Engagement and Pragmatism) accommodate European cases. I argue that AI platform adoption, including cloud-AI procurement, the selection of foundation model, and compute partnerships constitutes an alignment mechanism that operates beneath formal diplomatic positioning, and hardens over time with path-dependent lock-in. The EU AI Act sets a common regulatory floor, but member states are diverging on the infrastructure choices that actually constitute alignment, such as France's sovereign AI industrial policy (Mistral), Germany's mixed posture (Aleph Alpha) and smaller EU states defaulting to US hyperscalers. Drawing on neoclassical realism (Ripsman, Taliaferro, and Lobell 2016), I treat elite threat perception, coalition configuration and institutional capacity as domestic mediators explaining why states under similar systemic pressure select different AI platform strategies. The analysis pairs European cases with a subset of the original middle-ground sample, including India and the UAE, to enable direct comparison across both settings. The paper contributes to the field with a theoretically grounded account of how infrastructure choices create alignment in a fragmented digital order.