Withering cyber diplomacy? Emerging Technologies and the changing dynamics of multilateral governance
In the early 2010s, cyber diplomacy emerged as a novel diplomatic field, prompting foreign ministries worldwide to establish dedicated departments focused on cybersecurity and internet governance. However, as the international agenda shifts toward newer technological frontiers such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing and the systemic competition involving great powers and big tech companies, it is becoming increasingly less clear the place of cyber diplomacy in international relations. This paper explores whether the current ‘maturity’ of cyber diplomacy coincides with its potential gradual marginalization, driven by evolving institutional, organizational, and multilateral dynamics that reflect the current pivoting towards a broader understanding of technology as a geopolitical priority. It does so from the perspective of regime complex theory, proposing that we may be moving towards a macro-tech regime complex, that brings different strategic technologies including cyber, AI, quantum computing and autonomous systems. Specifically, the paper explores the viability of three assumptions: first, that cyber diplomacy units are increasingly being supplemented – or replaced – by broader technology-focused departments within leading foreign ministries; second, that these ministries are now engaged in a growing number of multilateral forums addressing a wide array of tech-related issues; and third, that even within the primary venue for cyber diplomacy – the UN Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) – the scope of discussions has expanded beyond cybersecurity to encompass wider technological challenges.